As the global automotive industry undergoes a profound transformation, geographic power dynamics are shifting at an unprecedented pace. While the United States and Europe continue to represent the largest markets in terms of total value, the true momentum of growth is increasingly concentrated in India, Africa, and the Middle East. The rapid rise of new manufacturing hubs and expanding domestic demand are driving a structural rebalancing toward these emerging growth frontiers.
China and India have evolved far beyond their historical roles as low-cost production bases for passenger, commercial, and industrial vehicles. They are now shaping the architecture of global mobility across multiple segments. In 2025, China produced a record 34.53 million vehicles, maintaining its position as the world’s largest automotive producer for the 17th consecutive year and accounting for 35.6% of total global market share. The impact of Asian manufacturing strength is visible across international markets. In South Africa, nearly half of all passenger vehicles sold are now manufactured in Asia, reflecting a significant shift in global supply dynamics.
India’s automotive ecosystem is advancing at similar speed. The country has firmly established itself as the world’s largest tractor producer, the second-largest bus manufacturer, and the third-largest heavy truck manufacturer. Vehicle exports rose 19% in 2025, reaching 5.3 million units. Despite relatively low car ownership levels—approximately 22 vehicles per 1,000 people—India already has around 295 million vehicles on its roads. This combination of low penetration and massive population scale signals substantial long-term growth potential.
Crucially, Asian original equipment manufacturers are not relying solely on exports. They are building local centres of gravity to support rising domestic demand. Infrastructure investment is accelerating in parallel. India, for example, is expanding its highway network by approximately 80,000 kilometres annually, supporting economic development and facilitating increased vehicle ownership. This infrastructure growth reinforces the domestic automotive ecosystem and strengthens the foundation for sustained aftermarket demand.
The expansion of vehicle manufacturing across Asia is creating significant trailing demand for replacement parts, intersecting with strong growth trends in Africa. In multiple African markets, Chinese and Indian brands now account for nearly 70% of light vehicle sales. This shift is fundamentally reshaping the aftermarket landscape, as vehicle specifications increasingly diverge from traditional European standards.
Africa’s automotive profile is also characterised by a heavy dependence on used vehicles. In South Africa alone, more than six million passenger cars are currently out of warranty. As fleets age, owners increasingly shift service spending away from official dealerships toward independent workshops. The higher average vehicle age results in more parts-intensive maintenance cycles, directly driving aftermarket demand.
Regulatory change is further accelerating this trend. Right-to-repair legislation in South Africa has dismantled longstanding OEM service monopolies, enabling independent workshops to compete more effectively for repair and maintenance business. This has significantly increased demand for high-quality non-OEM replacement parts.
At the same time, limited local manufacturing capacity in many African markets sustains strong, high-volume demand for imported components. Rather than exporting parts from Europe, leading aftermarket manufacturers are decentralising operations and establishing production capabilities closer to high-growth regions. Product portfolios are being adapted to reflect local vehicle populations, usage patterns, and operating environments.
India has emerged as a particularly critical manufacturing hub in this transformation. With globally competitive production capabilities across both value and premium segments, and structurally lower manufacturing costs than Europe and Latin America, India is increasingly positioned as a primary parts supply base for Africa. Meanwhile, the GCC countries in the Middle East are strengthening their role as strategic transit and distribution hubs linking Asia and Africa, further facilitating this realignment.
The pace of change is accelerating faster than many European players anticipated. For aftermarket manufacturers, proximity to growth markets is no longer optional—it is strategic necessity. Supply chains must be localised, logistics networks optimised, and inventory strategies redesigned to ensure sufficient stock availability both in-country and in transit. A multi-brand approach, supported by intelligent distribution models, is essential to serve increasingly diverse vehicle populations.
This structural shift also requires greater regional empowerment. Local teams must be equipped with decision-making autonomy aligned with regional market dynamics and long-term strategic objectives, ensuring reliability and uptime across mobility networks.
Africa is set to play an increasingly influential role in this realignment. Countries such as Morocco are emerging as near-shoring gateways for vehicle and parts manufacturing into Europe. In 2025, Morocco surpassed South Africa as Africa’s largest vehicle producer, with annual output exceeding one million units, signalling the continent’s growing industrial maturity.
For established aftermarket manufacturers, expansion into emerging markets is not merely a question of geographic reach. It represents a fundamental reconfiguration of business models to respond to powerful structural forces reshaping the global automotive aftermarket.
The central question is no longer whether global growth patterns have shifted. It is whether organisations are strategically structured to compete where growth is now being generated.
